Economy

Your Politics Don't Belong at The Dinner Table or In Investment Decisions

Your Politics Don't Belong at The Dinner Table or In Investment Decisions

We've all been there - stuck at the dinner table with the overly political uncle who's had a few beverages and is ready to dive into the latest headlines and hot-button issues. You know the one: every family gathering turns into a political debate, and you're left navigating a minefield of opinions while trying to enjoy your meal. Whether he's passionately defending his views or eagerly challenging yours, it's hard to escape the tension that hangs in the air. If no one comes to mind, perhaps you're that "uncle"?

The Return of Brood XIII: What Cicadas Can Teach Us About Financial Planning

The Return of Brood XIII: What Cicadas Can Teach Us About Financial Planning

After spending 17 years lying dormant underground, a new generation of Brood XIII cicadas will soon emerge across large swaths of the eastern United States. This phenomenon is one of the most remarkable examples of cyclical events in the natural world.

It's fascinating to think that the last time Brood XIII was about to turn in for its 17-year slumber, Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone to the world for the first time. A year later, a mysterious person named Satoshi Nakamoto wrote a paper describing something he called Bitcoin, which began trading for less than a penny.

Frogs and Inflation…Perfect Together

Frogs and Inflation…Perfect Together

The story is well-known: if you place a frog into boiling water, it will jump out immediately. But if the frog is put in tepid water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the impending danger and will eventually be cooked to death. This analogy is a powerful metaphor, cautioning us about the risks posed by gradual changes that go unnoticed—similar to the frog failing to react to the slowly heating water.

This metaphor aptly describes how people often fail to recognize or respond to gradual changes in their environment or circumstances. In financial planning, this concept underscores the importance of regularly monitoring a client's financial status to avoid being metaphorically "cooked."

High Rates Don't Put the Brakes on Stocks

High Rates Don't Put the Brakes on Stocks

Some investors have asked if stocks make sense in a world where short-term US Treasuries yield north of 5.5%. 1 While a notable relationship exists between high short-term interest rates and stock market returns, it's important to understand that correlation does not imply causation. Here's a breakdown of the dynamics:

Why Stock Valuations Are Not Predictive of Future Portfolio Returns

Why Stock Valuations Are Not Predictive of Future Portfolio Returns

Financial markets are complex and unpredictable. Valuation metrics, such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, enterprise value-to-EBITDA, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio, have traditionally been seen as indicators of a stock's intrinsic worth and, by some, predictors of future returns. However, the belief that valuations can reliably forecast future markets deserves a deeper investigation into why they may not serve as a crystal ball for investors. 

A Look Back at The First Half of 2023

A Look Back at The First Half of 2023

The S&P 500 index rose 16.9% on a total return basis over the first half of of 2023. If you factor in July, the index is up over 20%. After a challenging year for investors in 2022, when the index lost almost 20%, it’s hard to complain about this year’s progress. With the S&P nearly doubling the long-term average annual return in 2023, it’s easy to say the market is healthy and all companies are doing well, right?

4 Fundamentals of Financial Planning Success… and to Becoming a Better Pool Player

4 Fundamentals of Financial Planning Success… and to Becoming a Better Pool Player

Ever since I was a teenager and first watched the movie The Hustler, I’ve been hooked on shooting pool. I loved watching the two main characters, Fast Eddie Felson, played by Paul Newman, and Minnesota Fats, played by Jackie Gleason, battle it out on the pool table.

Investment Diversification Strategy: Just How Diversified Are You?

Investment Diversification Strategy: Just How Diversified Are You?

One of the most fundamental principles of investing is diversification. Diversification does not overload your portfolio into any investment but instead spreads the risk across different areas. Ideally, your portfolio is invested in several diverse types of investments, but as you'll see below, there is more to diversification than buying stocks, bonds, or funds.

Solar Energy Tax Incentives: What's New for 2023?

Solar Energy Tax Incentives: What's New for 2023?

According to the Department of Energy's SETO (Solar Energy Technologies Office), provisions included in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will reduce the cost of installing rooftop solar by an average of $7,500, with taxpayers expected to realize an additional average savings of $9,000 on their electricity bills over the system's life.

What Happened to Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)

What Happened to Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)

Revelations around the collapse and government takeover of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) dominated the news over the weekend. Except for the distractions provided by March Madness brackets and the Oscars, the word of failing financial institutions brought back bad feelings for everyone. Ironically, the film Everything Everywhere All at Once not only swept the Oscars but aptly describes the swiftness in which SVB collapsed.

Don’t Look at 2023 in the Rearview Mirror

Don’t Look at 2023 in the Rearview Mirror

As we head into the new year, when it comes to financial markets, some people may expect more of the same as in 2022—essentially overweighting recent events compared to historical events. This is a behavioral issue known as recency bias and may cause people to make bad decisions with their money.

A Tulip by Any Other Name: The Collapse of FTX and Crypto Markets.

A Tulip by Any Other Name: The Collapse of FTX and Crypto Markets.

The first investment speculative bubble was the tulip bubble of the mid-1600s. The details are debatable, but from 1634 to 1637, a speculative bubble developed on future contracts for new tulip varieties in Holland. Prices snowballed, reaching ten times the annual salary of a typical tradesman of the day. By February 1637, the market had collapsed. The tulip mania of the 1600s resulted from a mass hysteria for new varieties of tulips developed in Holland after the flower had been introduced to Europe only a few decades before.

What Caused the Inflation We've Been Experiencing?

What Caused the Inflation We've Been Experiencing?

Inflation is all everyone has been talking about for two years. Inflation reaching 40-year highs has wreaked havoc on consumers' wallets and caused market uncertainty.

The inflation story in 2021 was propelled forward by supply chain disruptions following the shutdown of the economy due to the COVID stay-at-home orders. This broad statement of supply chain disruptions expands to the physical transportation of products and a shortage of workers and materials

Social Media & Financial News Detox

Social Media & Financial News Detox

Would you believe it if someone told you that you could improve sleep, reduce stress and anxiety, and boost your mental well-being by reducing social media and news intake? About four months ago, I decided to conduct a self-experiment where I reduced the time spent on social media apps and watching news channels.

Follow a Disciplined Approach to Investing

Follow a Disciplined Approach to Investing

“Optimism sounds like a sales pitch. Pessimism sounds like someone trying to help you.” -The Psychology of Money, Morgan House.

I was having dinner with friends in December of 2018, and at the time, the markets were in the middle of a 20% drawdown. While we were out, one of my friends met an acquaintance of his who happened to be a Sales Representative for one of the large Wall Street brokers. I was happy to listen to his perspectives on the markets.

Economic Cycles as a Shakespearean Tragedy

Economic Cycles as a Shakespearean Tragedy

Shakespeare wrote ten dramas, each with a different story and cast of characters. However, his tragedies follow the same five-act formula: Exposition, Rising Action, Climax, Falling Action, and Resolution. Every play, movie, and television shows from Shakespeare's time to today follows the same five-act sequence. Our culture's art and entertainment reflect our innate expectations of the hero's rise, fall, and resolution. Likewise, our expectations for the economy and financial markets are no different.

Can the Yield Curve Predict Recessions?

Can the Yield Curve Predict Recessions?

Our brain constantly monitors for signs of threats and triggers emotional responses to avoid them. The most primitive part of our brain controls the instinct to prevent hazards. This basic survival instinct attaches a high probability to any piece of data forecasting anything. Like the weather forecast, human beings expect predictability regarding the economy and the stock market. However, forecasting should not be considered a prediction.

The Investment Story of 2022

The Investment Story of 2022

The first half of 2022 has been a disappointing year for every investor. At the close of Q2 2022, a 60/40 hypothetical portfolio comprised of the S&P 500 Index and Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index was down over 12%. What's been the driving force behind these investment returns, and what can we expect moving forward?