By: Joseph Goldy, CFP®
Is there a divorce season?
According to a study by associate sociology professor Julie Brines and doctoral candidate Brian Serafini of the University of Washington, the answer is yes, and they boiled it down into a simple formula...
Far from simple, divorce is a significant life decision that usually comes after many months or years of thought and contemplation. However, the idea of divorce rates predictably picking up during certain times of the year has been widely written about for years.
Anecdotally, family law attorneys have said they tend to experience a pickup in business after the holidays. Yet, until the researchers conducted an official study in 2016, there was no scientific proof of this phenomenon.
The University of Washington sociologists analyzed divorce filings from 2001 through 2015 in Washington state and discovered a consistent pattern in March and August. According to the researchers, divorce follows a “domestic ritual” calendar.
Divorce filings peaked consistently in March and August over a 14-year period.
University of Washington
The study found that most couples tend to put off filing until after summer vacation and year-end holidays. Many people see their expectations rising between Thanksgiving and Christmas, hoping things may improve and not wanting to rock the boat during the holidays.
Unfortunately, when expectations are not met and the real underlying problems of the relationship are not resolved, we see a pickup in filings, hence the spike in March.
This same phenomenon is seen going into the summer holidays. Many couples will put off filing for divorce as they go into the July summer vacation, and if things do not improve, they will file in August before school begins.
One finding of the research was that couples do put off filing for divorce when property values are depressed. Although the study was focused on just Washington state over ten years, it showed that during times of higher property values, couples feel the economic impact of splitting up will be less than during downturns.
Similarly, during the financial crisis of 2008/09, there was a drop in divorce filings since people were unsure of their financial situation and were not looking to add even more uncertainty into the picture. Situations like this are where working with your advisor can make a big difference. Knowing your plan and having a realistic view of your cash flow will give you the confidence to make the best decisions.
Understanding what your cash flow would look like post-breakup and the impact of alimony, child support, and splitting marital assets are the things we work on with clients if they find themself in the unfortunate situation of contemplating a divorce.
Although I never enjoy hearing when someone is going through a divorce, I am grateful that they’re working with HIGHLAND since I know they will receive the planning and education to back up any decisions they need to make during a typically difficult time.
Another University of Washington study a few years later, in 2020, attempted to create a tool to predict the likelihood of getting divorced or staying together. Amazingly, the tool has an 87% accuracy rate in predicting if couples will stay together.
Through the study, the researchers showed it wasn’t so much what couples said about each other; it was how they said it. Couples that had a high probability of staying together understood the value the other person brought into their life, showed respect even when they disagreed, and always displayed kindness. When they spoke about each other, it was very complimentary and in tune with each other’s thoughts.
We’ll close with an important lesson shared by Sybil Carr, lead author of the study.
“A lot of couples neglect the friendship in marriage, and it erodes over time because of such things as career demands and having children,” Carr said. “When you neglect friendship, the positive perceptual filter you have about your partner begins to fail. People need to make time to nurture their marriage, just like they take time to work out, for the health of the relationship.”
Joseph Goldy, CFP®, is a wealth advisor and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ at Highland Financial Advisors, LLC, a fee-only fiduciary wealth advisory firm based in Wayne, New Jersey.
Joe specializes in working with newly independent women because of divorce or losing a spouse. He understands firsthand the value of having a clear financial picture pre- and post-divorce and a plan to restate goals as a single person. When he is not helping clients, Joe enjoys spending time with his two sons outdoors and volunteering to help raise money for Type 1 diabetes organizations.