Economy

High Rates Don't Put the Brakes on Stocks

High Rates Don't Put the Brakes on Stocks

Some investors have asked if stocks make sense in a world where short-term US Treasuries yield north of 5.5%. 1 While a notable relationship exists between high short-term interest rates and stock market returns, it's important to understand that correlation does not imply causation. Here's a breakdown of the dynamics:

Why Stock Valuations Are Not Predictive of Future Portfolio Returns

Why Stock Valuations Are Not Predictive of Future Portfolio Returns

Financial markets are complex and unpredictable. Valuation metrics, such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, enterprise value-to-EBITDA, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio, have traditionally been seen as indicators of a stock's intrinsic worth and, by some, predictors of future returns. However, the belief that valuations can reliably forecast future markets deserves a deeper investigation into why they may not serve as a crystal ball for investors. 

A Look Back at The First Half of 2023

A Look Back at The First Half of 2023

The S&P 500 index rose 16.9% on a total return basis over the first half of of 2023. If you factor in July, the index is up over 20%. After a challenging year for investors in 2022, when the index lost almost 20%, it’s hard to complain about this year’s progress. With the S&P nearly doubling the long-term average annual return in 2023, it’s easy to say the market is healthy and all companies are doing well, right?

4 Fundamentals of Financial Planning Success… and to Becoming a Better Pool Player

4 Fundamentals of Financial Planning Success… and to Becoming a Better Pool Player

Ever since I was a teenager and first watched the movie The Hustler, I’ve been hooked on shooting pool. I loved watching the two main characters, Fast Eddie Felson, played by Paul Newman, and Minnesota Fats, played by Jackie Gleason, battle it out on the pool table.

Investment Diversification Strategy: Just How Diversified Are You?

Investment Diversification Strategy: Just How Diversified Are You?

One of the most fundamental principles of investing is diversification. Diversification does not overload your portfolio into any investment but instead spreads the risk across different areas. Ideally, your portfolio is invested in several diverse types of investments, but as you'll see below, there is more to diversification than buying stocks, bonds, or funds.

Solar Energy Tax Incentives: What's New for 2023?

Solar Energy Tax Incentives: What's New for 2023?

According to the Department of Energy's SETO (Solar Energy Technologies Office), provisions included in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will reduce the cost of installing rooftop solar by an average of $7,500, with taxpayers expected to realize an additional average savings of $9,000 on their electricity bills over the system's life.

What Happened to Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)

What Happened to Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)

Revelations around the collapse and government takeover of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) dominated the news over the weekend. Except for the distractions provided by March Madness brackets and the Oscars, the word of failing financial institutions brought back bad feelings for everyone. Ironically, the film Everything Everywhere All at Once not only swept the Oscars but aptly describes the swiftness in which SVB collapsed.

Don’t Look at 2023 in the Rearview Mirror

Don’t Look at 2023 in the Rearview Mirror

As we head into the new year, when it comes to financial markets, some people may expect more of the same as in 2022—essentially overweighting recent events compared to historical events. This is a behavioral issue known as recency bias and may cause people to make bad decisions with their money.

A Tulip by Any Other Name: The Collapse of FTX and Crypto Markets.

A Tulip by Any Other Name: The Collapse of FTX and Crypto Markets.

The first investment speculative bubble was the tulip bubble of the mid-1600s. The details are debatable, but from 1634 to 1637, a speculative bubble developed on future contracts for new tulip varieties in Holland. Prices snowballed, reaching ten times the annual salary of a typical tradesman of the day. By February 1637, the market had collapsed. The tulip mania of the 1600s resulted from a mass hysteria for new varieties of tulips developed in Holland after the flower had been introduced to Europe only a few decades before.

What Caused the Inflation We've Been Experiencing?

What Caused the Inflation We've Been Experiencing?

Inflation is all everyone has been talking about for two years. Inflation reaching 40-year highs has wreaked havoc on consumers' wallets and caused market uncertainty.

The inflation story in 2021 was propelled forward by supply chain disruptions following the shutdown of the economy due to the COVID stay-at-home orders. This broad statement of supply chain disruptions expands to the physical transportation of products and a shortage of workers and materials

Social Media & Financial News Detox

Social Media & Financial News Detox

Would you believe it if someone told you that you could improve sleep, reduce stress and anxiety, and boost your mental well-being by reducing social media and news intake? About four months ago, I decided to conduct a self-experiment where I reduced the time spent on social media apps and watching news channels.

Follow a Disciplined Approach to Investing

Follow a Disciplined Approach to Investing

“Optimism sounds like a sales pitch. Pessimism sounds like someone trying to help you.” -The Psychology of Money, Morgan House.

I was having dinner with friends in December of 2018, and at the time, the markets were in the middle of a 20% drawdown. While we were out, one of my friends met an acquaintance of his who happened to be a Sales Representative for one of the large Wall Street brokers. I was happy to listen to his perspectives on the markets.

Economic Cycles as a Shakespearean Tragedy

Economic Cycles as a Shakespearean Tragedy

Shakespeare wrote ten dramas, each with a different story and cast of characters. However, his tragedies follow the same five-act formula: Exposition, Rising Action, Climax, Falling Action, and Resolution. Every play, movie, and television shows from Shakespeare's time to today follows the same five-act sequence. Our culture's art and entertainment reflect our innate expectations of the hero's rise, fall, and resolution. Likewise, our expectations for the economy and financial markets are no different.

Can the Yield Curve Predict Recessions?

Can the Yield Curve Predict Recessions?

Our brain constantly monitors for signs of threats and triggers emotional responses to avoid them. The most primitive part of our brain controls the instinct to prevent hazards. This basic survival instinct attaches a high probability to any piece of data forecasting anything. Like the weather forecast, human beings expect predictability regarding the economy and the stock market. However, forecasting should not be considered a prediction.

The Investment Story of 2022

The Investment Story of 2022

The first half of 2022 has been a disappointing year for every investor. At the close of Q2 2022, a 60/40 hypothetical portfolio comprised of the S&P 500 Index and Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index was down over 12%. What's been the driving force behind these investment returns, and what can we expect moving forward?

True Confessions of a Financial Advisor

True Confessions of a Financial Advisor

As of Friday, the 29th of July, except for the NASDAQ market, the US equity markets recovered somewhat from the bear market correction. A bear market is a loss of 20% from the previous high. In the first six months of 2022, the equity market had lost over 80% of what it gained in 2021 and entered a bear market correction.

What is a Recession?

What is a Recession?

Two weeks ago, the latest Consumer Price Index data (the index that measures inflation) had risen 1.3% in June, bringing headline inflation up to 9.1% and core inflation (excludes energy and food) up to 5.9% over the last 12 months. With increases this large, it’s not surprising to know this has been the most significant 12-month increase since November of 1981. With inflation on the rise, the war in Ukraine, and the stock market in bear territory (when stocks fall at least 20% off their highs), are we doomed for a recession?

Tax Loss Harvesting: The Silver Lining of Market Downturns

Tax Loss Harvesting: The Silver Lining of Market Downturns

With the first half of 2022 closing just a few days ago, the S&P 500 is down almost 20% year-to-date. That would rank as the worst first half of the year in over 50 years! While many tend to avoid looking at their investment account statements during times like this, market downturns present unique opportunities for investors